TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/082691/0826000.000

Text File | 1992-08-28 | 8.5 KB | 185 lines

                                                                                WORLD, Page 26

MIDDLE EAST

Let's Do a Deal


Everyone seems to be demanding something for the Western hostages.
But can any solution satisfy all sides?

By JILL SMOLOWE -- Reported by William Mader/London and Lara
Marlowe/Beirut


    As negotiations proceeded fitfully last week, the deadly
sport of Hide the Hostage began to resemble a sophisticated
version of the children's game Operator. Each party to the
negotiations, whether dealing openly or behind the scenes,
relayed its demands to Javier Perez de Cuellar. The U.N.
Secretary-General transmitted each message to a third party, who
in turn cried, "Operator!" requesting that the communication be
repeated, clarified or amplified. Perez de Cuellar then went
back to the first party, bearing new details, fresh analysis and
cajoling reassurances.

    While all this had the promising feel of an end game, the
negotiations proceeded at a frustratingly slow pace, and no one
could tell if a settlement was days or weeks away -- or possibly
stalemated altogether. With so many circuits buzzing at once,
there was ample room for misunderstanding, misinterpretation and
plain old mischief. Was the tally of Western hostages 11 or 10
(is British journalist Alec Collett dead?) or nine (is Italian
businessman Alberto Molinari dead as well?)? The estimated
number of Arabs imprisoned in Europe fluctuated between 19 and
23. One day, the 9,000 or so Palestinians detained in Israel in
connection with the nearly four-year-old intifadeh were not a
factor; the next, they were added to the equation, and their
numbers were inflated to 18,000 to boot.

    Despite the conflicting signals, the outlines of a deal
began to emerge. The pivotal player was Israel, which insisted
on a strict accounting of the whereabouts of seven missing
servicemen but promised to be "very flexible" about the terms
for trading its Arab prisoners in southern Lebanon that would
in turn spring the release of the Western captives. Jerusalem
offered a two-step plan. In phase one, Israel would release
about 50 Shi`ites after receiving a full report on its soldiers,
verifiable by either videotape or international observers. The
second stage would see the release of the remaining Shi`ite
detainees (is the total 375, as Israel maintains, or more than
400, as others claim?), including the south Lebanon spiritual
leader Sheik Abdul Karim Obeid. In exchange, Israel would
retrieve its surviving soldiers and the remains of the rest.
Israeli officials offered on Saturday to allow the Red Cross to
visit Sheik Obeid if it is also given access to Israelis in Arab
custody.

    Since neither the Bush Administration nor any European
government wants to be perceived as bargaining with kidnappers,
they made no overt demand about the timing of the Western
hostages' release. But plainly the West expects its captives to
be freed during one of those two phases.

    While the contours of the deal seemed clear, the mechanics
posed nettlesome questions. Among the most vexing was a
condition contained in the letter former British hostage John
McCarthy brought to Perez de Cuellar from Islamic Jihad, a
fundamentalist Shi`ite faction, operating under the banner of
the pro-Iranian Hizballah, that holds several Westerners. It
called for "the release of our freedom fighters from prisons in
occupied Palestine and Europe." To whom that referred was
anybody's guess -- and for whom Islamic Jihad presumed to speak
was no more apparent. Was this a bargaining point or an
implacable demand?

    As Perez de Cuellar attempted to untangle that knot, he
also dealt with the immediate question of Israel's seven MIAs.
Jerusalem vowed to release no prisoners until it had concrete
information about the soldiers' whereabouts. In turn, a senior
Hizballah source in Beirut warned, "No more Westerners will be
released until Israel frees at least some prisoners."

    So where are the Israeli soldiers? How many of them are
still alive? And whose answers to those questions can be
trusted? Hizballah asserted last week that three of the
servicemen are still alive. A Westerner who has served as an
intermediary in hostage negotiations said he believed that only
airman Ron Arad has survived his captivity. When those
contradictory statements were coupled with the disparate claims
emanating from Iran and Syria about the Israeli soldiers, the
overriding impression was that no one source could account
authoritatively for all seven.

    Another factor that could scotch a settlement is the
imprisonment in Germany of two Lebanese brothers, Mohammed and
Abbas Hammadi. Tried and jailed for, respectively, the 1985 TWA
hijacking and the abduction of two German relief workers, the
Hammadis are an unpredictable wild card in the hostage
negotiations. The Hammadi family claims to hold the two Germans
hostage and has warned the leadership of Hizballah, to which it
belongs, that they will not go free until the imprisoned
brothers are released.

    After an initial tart response that Germany "will not be
blackmailed," Bonn lapsed into silence. Germany's refusal to
swap convicted criminals for kidnapped hostages is well known,
and any second thoughts would undoubtedly be checked by pressure
from Washington, especially since Mohammed Hammadi was convicted
for his role in the 1985 TWA skyjacking, which resulted in the
murder of U.S. Navy diver Robert Stethem. How critical the
Hammadis will prove in any final settlement remains uncertain.
While Hizballah has asserted that it wants the brothers back,
it is possible that the demand is merely a noisy tactic designed
to wrest concessions and appease the powerful Hammadi clan.

    Several other potential stumbling blocks exist. Islamic
Jihad's call for "the release of all detainees around the
world," if serious, may bring at least seven other European
countries into the negotiations. Five Arab terrorists are held
in Britain, two in France, two in Greece, five in Italy, three
in Spain, three in Sweden and one in Switzerland. Most of these
men have been convicted of crimes; the others are awaiting trial
for acts ranging from the importation of explosives to the 1985
hijacking of the cruise ship Achille Lauro. Perez de Cuellar
signaled that the release of any of these prisoners would not be
considered; he called them a "legal problem," as distinct from
the "political problem" of the hostages.

    Tehran has put in an unconvincing bid for the release of
four Iranians who have been missing in Lebanon since the 1982
Israeli invasion. The Lebanese government has steadily
maintained that all four are dead. In addition, although
Hizballah hinted privately last week that its vague demand for
the release of the thousands of Palestinians detained by Israel
during the uprising in the occupied territories was just a
bargaining ploy that could be dropped, Ahmed Jibril, a radical
Palestinian leader with strong ties to Syria, specifically
called for their release. A senior British diplomat warns, "It's
impossible to tell whether he was speaking for himself, his
group, the Palestine Liberation Organization or all of them."

    General Antoine Lahd, commander of the South Lebanon Army
militia, weighed in with a requirement that nine of his
militiamen held by Hizballah be released or accounted for. Lahd
holds the keys to El Khiam prison in southern Lebanon, where
Israel detains 350 of the Shi`ites sought by Islamic Jihad --
though Israel would probably make him unlock the door if its
soldiers are recovered. Damascus has also put in a bid for the
release of an unspecified number of Syrian soldiers it claims
were detained by Israel in the Golan Heights.

    With so many competing claims, it is impossible to predict
when the dealmaking will conclude. Yet despite the various
complications, there are several promising signs. Kidnappers and
victimized nations alike seem eager to find a solution,
particularly before the Middle East peace conference that is
expected to be convened in October. From their distant
captivity, some of the Western hostages sent word through
recently released hostages that even they believe an end to
their ordeal is finally at hand. Perhaps most promising of all,
Perez de Cuellar -- the point man in all of this -- is
increasingly tight-lipped. As diplomats know, when negotiations
are truly moving forward, the dealmakers usually have less and
less to say.